The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) has landed. Now we must reckon with the consequences, and with Mike Lawler’s betrayal of both his constituents and his word.
Any of us who pay attention, and who don’t limit our diet to Fox meat, know the reality of the OBBBA: massive tax cuts for the wealthy and a sprinkling for the rest of us, paid for with $1.4 trillion in cuts to Medicaid, Obamacare and food assistance programs, and trillions added to the deficit. Or as GOP Representative Keith Self of Texas summarized it before he voted for it, “morally and fiscally bankrupt.”
According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the wealthiest households will see a $12,000 increase per year in income; middle-income households a $500 to $1,500 increase; and the poorest a $1,600 decrease. An estimated 11.8 million Americans will lose health insurance. And the federal deficit will increase by at least $3.3 trillion over the next decade.
Let us recount the multiple ways that Mike Lawler broke his word by voting “aye.”
Big Bipartisan Bill?
Lawler loves to promote himself as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, with a big sign on stage at every town hall event. But that’s all it is, stagecraft. He gained bipartisan points from the Lugar Center by flooding the House floor with inconsequential bipartisan bills that go nowhere, like the Appalachian Trail Centennial Act.
But on the big votes, he’ll vote however Mike Johnson and Donald Trump demand. Even in favor of the ridiculous Gulf of America Act.
After today’s vote, he can no longer pretend he’s bipartisan. He showed no interest in working across the aisle on this legislation. For Lawler, bipartisan meant seeking compromise with the hard right GOP Freedom Caucus to pass the OBBBA without a single Democratic vote. The most consequential legislation passed in the most partisan manner possible, breaking all the rules to avoid Senate filibuster and squeak by with a tie vote, with JD breaking the tie and the country.
How does the GOP define success here?
Jim Jordan: “You know it’s a good piece of legislation because the Democrats hate it so much.”
Tax Cuts for the Wealthy
Here’s what Mike Lawler said on NPR Wednesday:
Mike Lawler: “There’s no tax cuts for billionaires. This is an extension of existing law. The biggest tax cuts in this bill are for the working-class and low-income Americans across the country.”
This is a lie. Expect him to say it a lot more.
Mike may call it an extension, but those tax cuts were set to expire. This legislation is a deliberate decision to grant billionaires a fresh round of generous tax cuts in their favor, financed largely by cuts to Medicaid and hikes to the deficit. It also expands existing tax benefits for the wealthy. See “Top five tax changes for the wealthy in Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’”. One of those is SALT, compliments of Mike Lawler.
As far as tax cuts for low-income Americans, most poor Americans don’t pay tax. Those that do may get a higher percentage tax reduction this round, but the dollar amount of cuts for the wealthy will be far greater. And low-income Americans will be the ones who suffer most from the cuts in health care.
It’s also noteworthy that the highly touted deductions for tips, overtime, car loan payments and seniors all expire after 2028, but all of the other tax cuts (including the largest for the wealthy) are permanent.
State and Local Tax Deductions (SALT)
Lawler’s ask was to raise the cap from $10K to $100K. At the end of the day, he settled for $40K in the House bill. And when the Senate further limited that to 5 years, Mike caved again.
More significantly, this was never a fight for middle and working class families. According to the Tax Foundation, “Even with an income phaseout for taxpayers earning over $500,000, the top 20 percent of taxpayers would be the only group to meaningfully benefit.” It was an “unneeded benefit to higher earners,” and will cost an estimated $320 billion, which will be extracted from healthcare and food assistance for the needy.
Medicaid
He lied. Mike Lawler voted to cut Medicaid and health care spending by $1.1 trillion. Per the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, 16 million people will lose their health insurance, including 1.5 million New Yorkers and 32,000 in Mike Lawler’s district. To pay for his incremental SALT deductions for the wealthy.
Of the Medicaid cuts, Mitch McConnell reportedly said, “They’ll get over it.” I don’t think so.
Clean Energy
Mike Lawler voted to kill clean energy tax credits in the House bill despite misgivings, hoping the Senate would improve it. He signed a letter to the Senate acknowledging that the OBBBA “jeopardizes ongoing development, discourages long-term investment, and could significantly delay or cancel energy infrastructure projects across the country,” and that cancellations “will continue to snowball.” The Senate made it worse, accelerating the phase-out of clean energy credits. And Mike Lawler caved again.
Even before the more destructive Senate changes, one analysis concluded that the OBBBA will “increase annual energy bills by $1.3 billion across New York households annually in 2030, swelling to more than $2.5 billion in higher energy costs by 2035.” It will also cost New York thousands of jobs and shrink NY’s GDP by $37 billion over 10 years.
Deficit
Mike Lawler, deficit hawk: “Our national debt is now over $35 trillion. As a father, it pains me to see the debt we are saddling on our children and grandchildren.”
Mike Lawler just voted to increase the federal deficit by $3.3 trillion.
Conclusion
With these facts in mind, witness the art of Lawler. Somehow, taking health care from the poor to make the rich richer, sinking us further into debt, and killing jobs and the planet along the way becomes this:
Mike Lawler often speaks of the necessity to compromise to get things done. We now know that he is most definitely compromised. Mike Lawler could have pursued a bipartisan process and bipartisan solutions. He could have honored his word. He could have stopped this partisan monstrosity with a single vote on May 22 when the House passed the original bill. Instead, he chose fealty to and fear of Donald Trump, and SALT for the wealthy, over the best interests of his constituents. Voting for legislation that is morally and fiscally bankrupt.
Rule of Lawler 