This is Mike Lawler speaking yesterday about Iran:

“The fact is we’re at a point where they almost undoubtedly have a nuclear weapon. And so this is the moment, if we are going to take action to do so. And I believe that the president is within his rights and I do believe it’s the right decision to use the B-52s to conduct an operation to eliminate the threat.”

This is Tulsi Gabbard, director of national intelligence, testifying to Congress on March 25:

“The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”

And here’s Trump on Tuesday:

His press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, went further yesterday, saying:

“Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon. All they need is a decision from the supreme leader to do that, and it would take a couple of weeks to complete the production of that weapon.”

This contradicts reporting that “most experts estimate it would take Iran between several months to two years to actually make a deliverable nuclear warhead.”

Does this all feel familiar? Trump dismissing intelligence community assessments; Mike Lawler playing loose with the facts, hawkishly supporting Bibi and conceding authority to the unstable genius?

Here’s what else feels familiar. A ridiculous Mike Lawler survey reducing a complex issue down to a binary choice:

Might there be some alternatives between “bomb now” and “not our problem?”

Nobody wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon. But to declare that Iran “almost undoubtedly” has a nuclear weapon, contrary to national intelligence; that now is the moment to bomb; and that one impulsive man who also rejects the facts should make that decision, is reckless. We can take some solace in the fact that Trump seems to have put a two-week pause on that decision.

Many have noted how this feels like the eve of our invasion of Iraq in 2003. When Colin Powell cited “solid intelligence” that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Based on that representation, Congress authorized the invasion. No WMDs were found, 9 years of war followed, nearly 4,500 Americans died, 185,000 Iraqi civilians died, 2 million Iraqis were displaced, and the ISIS terror organization rose to fill the power vacuum created by the war.

Do Netanyahu, Trump or Lawler have a plan for the day after? I don’t sense any solid intelligence there, almost undoubtedly.

“The only people who speak in certainties are zealots and tyrants.” – Akbar, Kaveh. Martyr! (2024)