When Mike Lawler travels the airwaves, he travels middle class. Just a tiny sampling from the Lawler X-files:

• “Proud to introduce the Middle-Class Tax Relief Act…” (Jan 31, 2023)
• “I’m going to keep fighting for my constituents and for hardworking middle class taxpayers across this country.” (Feb 17, 2024)
• “We are hitting the ground running in the 119th Congress! I look forward to lowering the tax burden for middle and working-class families….” (Jan 21, 2025)
• “The One Big Beautiful Bill supports working families and the middle class, while also providing relief to ease the affordability crisis.” (June 6, 2025)

I don’t know how Lawler defines “working families” or the “middle class,” but it’s clear that he defines them loosely. Let’s travel economy class for a moment and look at the true winners and losers in the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB).

Last Thursday, while all cameras were turned on Los Angeles, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released an analysis on “the distributional effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” In summary, it would cost low-income households $1,600 a year, while enriching the top 10% by $12,000 a year.

The New York Times expanded this analysis to show that the BBB is “more regressive than any major tax or entitlement law in decades.”

Mike Lawler’ singular crusade to increase the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap from 10% to 40% as part of the BBB is even more regressive. According to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation: “Under a $40,000 cap with a $500,000 income limit, earners in the 95th to 99th income percentiles would see a 0.6 percent relative increase in after-tax income compared to the existing House proposal [of 30%]; the bottom 80 percent of earners would see no benefit.”

To make all of this worse, the above analysis doesn’t include the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs, which Mike Lawler has also defended. Tariffs are a regressive tax, pure and simple.

Per commentary from the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation: “Tariffs are just taxes on Americans by another name. However, some Americans shoulder a larger burden under protectionism than others. Unlike our progressive income tax, taxes on imports (tariffs) are regressive and take a bigger percentage of income from poor families.” 

Here’s an analysis of what the combined impact of the BBB and Trump’s tariffs could look like:

See “The Household Impact of Trump’s Tariffs,” from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (June 11, 2025).

Don’t be fooled by his constant refrain about fighting for working families and the middle class. As a booster for Trump’s tariffs and the BBB, Mike Lawler serves folks flying first class and business class. Peanuts and bromides for the rest of us.